AMS Station Scientist Forum

Oct 09 Delta T

joe24Jscientist — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 19:58:38 GMT

Preliminary results: US cold, northern areas warm, lots of world near average.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.pl

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/monitoring.html

Forum: Story Ideas

SOLAR flight around the world: GREAT WEBSITE WITH PHOTOS

joe24Jscientist — Thur, 05 Nov 2009 16:57:07 GMT

http://www.solarimpulse.com/

PHOTOS: SLICK LOOKING MACHINE
http://www.solarimpulse.com/sitv/pictures.php?lang=en&group=media

Where does the idea of the Solar Impulse come from?
Bertrand Piccard came up with this idea following Orbiter 3. This successful world tour in 1999 conveyed a great deal of enthusiasm. It is precisely this enthusiasm that must be mobilized to make people aware of the challenge of the 21st century: reconcile economic and ecologic interests. Promoting the use of new technologies not only to give credibility to sources of alternative forms of energy but also to show that we must spare today's resources.

Which are the concrete objectives of this operation?
To show what can be achieved using renewable energies and encourage their use. We want a strong symbol capable of striking the minds. In this respect, Solar Impulse will be our ambassador. The message we want to share is that it is essential to develop new technologies to allow our society to reduce its energetic consumption. As it is almost unthinkable that people will accept to diminish their life standards, we must develop efficient equipments that consume less, as well as alternative sources of energy and first of all solar energy.

Why is the wingspan of the plane so important?
Firstly, a longer wingspan allows the improvement of its aerodynamic efficiency by reducing the importance of induced drag. This produces a weaker airplane sink-rate and thus reduces the power of the motors required to maintain it in a horizontal position. The second advantage of a large wingspan is the benefit from a greater surface on which to place the solar cells.

What area still limits the plane's performance?
It is above all, the energetic density of the batteries. Their stocking capacity is still limited and their influence has a great bearing on the total mass of the airplane. By doubling their storage capacity, it would be possible to allow a second person on board and therefore carry out longer flights.

What will happen in case of a breakdown? In other words, what are the risks for the pilot?
If the pilot wastes his energy during the night, he will have to interrupt the flight before the next sunrise. But isn't it also the case of our generation running the risk of not being able to hand down the planet to future generations without a major human and technological disaster? The pilot will be equipped with a parachute, but our world doesn't have any such protection to face the climate change! In other words, the greatest risk is not flying on board of the Solar Impulse, but keeping on wasting our world's energy and raw materials!

What is the output of solar cells?
The output of the cells reserved for the project is about 20%. Two criteria are used for this selection: the output, but also the weight. The cells chosen are made of silicon mono-crystalline of a fine thickness. Today there exist more high-performance technologies with up to 30% output, but they are also heavy. It is obvious that a significant improvement of this output would also improve the airplane's performance and reduce its wingspan or increase the payload.

What does photovoltaic mean?
Cells are photovoltaic, when they directly transform the photons (light) into electricity. But there are thermal solar panels that allow water to be heated either for houses or for producing the steam used to turn the turbines that generate electricity.

Why not a world tour without stopovers?
For the time being this is not feasible because even if we are able to reach "perpetual flight" there will be a human limitation. The plane's cockpit is very small and can only accommodate one pilot. He won't be able to physically endure these conditions more than 4 to 5 days. The world tour without stopovers could be made possible as soon as 2 pilots can embark. One must know that it took was 60 years between the first world tour with stopovers and the first world tour without stopovers in a traditional motor airplane...

What technological developments can we expect after the completion of the world tour?
It's difficult to say, but we can already expect multiple developments in fields of weight and energy saving, in components efficiency, in the greater reliability of electrical engines, in a better output of solar cells, energy storage or improvements of cabin pressurisation systems. But we will first have to develop know-how before communicating the technologies.

Can solar energy replace oil?
Solar energy alone cannot. The future energy supply will certainly be based on a large diversification of sources: solar, but also wind, hydroelectric, tidal and, geothermic. Until this goal has been reached, there will still be an important demand for oil, coal and nuclear power.

Why is the cause of sustainable development progressing so slowly, when the risks of pollution and climate change are undeniable?
Because protecting the environment too often still remains associated with a restriction of mobility and financial sacrifice. The economic benefits offered by a true policy of sustainable development must be shown, including new products, new prospects, new sectors offering jobs, market share and profitability.

Do you think it would be possible to replace conventional airlines with solar ones in the near future?
Currently, technology only allows the transport of a single person on a flight of 24 hours, and then with a wingspan of 60 to 80 meters. But if we go back into history, when the great Wright brothers got their first plane to fly a distance of 200 meters in 1903, could they have imagined that 66 years later, two men would walk on the moon?

Forum: Story Ideas

The stats are in: USGS says that Atlanta floods are "extremely rare"

paulg — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 21:54:46 GMT

Atlanta Floods Extremely Rare

The epic flooding that hit the Atlanta area in September was so extremely rare that, six weeks later this event has defied attempts to describe it. Scientists have reviewed the numbers and they are stunning.

At some sites, the annual chance of a flood of this magnitude was so significantly less than 1 in 500 that, given the relatively short length of streamgaging records (well less than 100 years), the U.S. Geological Survey cannot accurately characterize the probability due to its extreme rarity," said Robert Holmes, USGS National Flood Program Coordinator. Nationwide, given that our oldest streamgaging records span about 100 years, the USGS does not cite probabilities for floods that are beyond a 0.2 percent (500-year) flood.

If a 0.2 percent (500-year) flood was a cup of coffee, this one brewed a full pot, said Brian McCallum, Assistant Director for the USGS Georgia Water Science Center in Atlanta. This flood overtopped 20 USGS streamgages one by 12 feet. The closest numbers we have seen like these in Georgia were from Tropical Storm Alberto in 1994. This flood was off the charts.

The rains returned water levels in the regions two largest reservoirs, Lake Lanier and Allatoona Lake, to pre-drought levels. Lake Lanier rose by more than three feet to 1068 feet by Sept. 25 and returned to full pool in October. Allatoona Lake rose to 853.25 feet on Sept 23, more than 13 feet over full pool of 840 feet.

The flooding in Atlanta is certainly near the top of the list of the worst floods in the United States during the past 100 years, said Holmes. For comparable drainage areas, the magnitude of this flood was worse than the 1977 Kansas City flood, which caused tremendous destruction and loss of life. It is a testament to the diligence of county officials and emergency management teams that more lives were not lost in Georgia.

Significant property losses, however, were a near certainty from this event. According to the National Weather Service, some locations recorded up to 20 inches of rain from 8:00 pm on Sept. 20 to 8:00 pm the following day. Culverts and sewers are not usually designed for events of this magnitude because they are so rare and it is cost prohibitive.

Applying rainfall frequency calculations, we have determined that the chance of 10 inches or more occurring at any given point are less than one hundredth of one percent, said Kent Frantz, Senior Service Hydrologist for the National Weather Service at Peachtree City. This means that the chance of an event like this occurring is 1 in 10,000.

For this analysis, USGS reviewed high-water-mark surveys and indirect peak discharge computations throughout the flood-affected region. Scientists gather these data from the field during floods and in their immediate aftermath to supplement or in this case, to provide data after a gage is destroyed. Some notable results:

In Cobb County, Sweetwater, Noonday, Butler, and Powder Springs creeks flooded so severely that the annual chance of a worse event is far smaller than 0.2 percent (500-year) flood. On Sweetwater Creek near Austell, Ga., high-water marks showed a peak stage of 30.8 feet. The peak flow (31,500 cubic feet per second) was more than double the previous peak flow recorded at this site during the last 73 years. The previous peak, caused by the remnants of Hurricane Dennis in July 2005, was almost 10 feet lower at 21.87 feet.
In Douglas County, the Dog River near Fairplay overtopped the USGS stream gage by 12 feet. The peak stage was 33.8 feet, with a peak discharge of 59,900 cubic feet per second. This is well beyond the 0.2 percent annual exceedence probability (500-year) flood.
Gwinnett, DeKalb and Rockdale counties also had record flooding. Suwanee Creek floods were beyond the 0.2 percent annual exceedence probability (500-year) flood.
On the Chattahoochee, the USGS gage at Vinings reached a peak stage of 28.12 feet with 40,900 cubic feet per second, which represents between a between a 1.0 to 0.5 percent annual exceedence probability (100- to 200-year) flood.

In Georgia the USGS maintains a network of nearly 300 streamgages that provide data in real time. Data from these streamgages are used by local, state and federal officials for numerous purposes, including public safety and flood forecasting by the National Weather Service. A map of these gages and graphs of discharge for the last seven days is available online.

Forum: Story Ideas

JPL Addresses a Weakness in Climate Models

jimgandy — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 06:21:11 GMT

There is a press release on the NASA website, dated 11/3/09, discussing a recent paper published by JPL scientists in the Journal of Climate. It is in the global climate change section and can be accessed at:

http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/story_archive/Turbulent_Nature_of_Air/

The study addresses a weakness in climate models, namely the way the models simulate clouds. The press release does a good job of clarifying a highly technical paper.

Citation:

Kahn, B. H., and J. Teixeira (2009), A global climatology of temperature and water vapor variance scaling from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, J. Climate, 22, 5558'5576, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2934.1

Forum: Story Ideas

Global Tree Death Patterns Reveal Emerging Climate Change Risks for Forests

jimgandy — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 04:16:57 GMT

Forests have been suggested as part of a plan to help sequester CO2. However, a recent story on the USGS website indicates that such a plan may be at risk because of climate change. The story can be accessed at:

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2335&from=rss_home

The actual report is online in the journal Forest Ecology and Management. Here is the abstract:

Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

Forum: Story Ideas

Recent Acceleration of Global Sea Level Rise

jimgandy — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 03:50:51 GMT

If you are looking for information on the rise of global sea level, there is a report published in the November 2009 issue of the Journal of Climate worth noting. The reference is:

Merrifield, M.A., S.T. Merrifield, and G.T. Mitchum, 2009: An Anomalous Recent Acceleration of Global Sea Level Rise. J. Climate, 22, 57725781.

Abstract:

Tide gauge data are used to estimate trends in global sea level for the period from 1955 to 2007. Linear trends over 15-yr segments are computed for each tide gauge record, averaged over latitude bands, and combined to form an area-weighted global mean trend. The uncertainty of the global trend is specified as a sampling error plus a random vertical land motion component, but land motion corrections do not change the results. The average global sea level trend for the time segments centered on 196290 is 1.5 0.5 mm yr^-1 (standard error), in agreement with previous estimates of late twentieth-century sea level rise. After 1990, the global trend increases to the most recent rate of 3.2 0.4 mm yr^-1, matching estimates obtained from satellite altimetry. The acceleration is distinct from decadal variations in global sea level that have been reported in previous studies. Increased rates in the tropical and southern oceans primarily account for the acceleration. The timing of the global acceleration corresponds to similar sea level trend changes associated with upper ocean heat content and ice melt.

The full story is available at:

http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-toc&issn=1520-0442&volume=22&issue=21

Forum: Story Ideas

USGS Public Lecture Series: Science in Action

jimgandy — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 16:46:06 GMT

Paul Gross posted an excellent resource entitled Excellent Climate Change Visuals from NASA. I thank Paul and highly recommend it.

In addition, I found a public lecture series on the USGS website. It can be access at:

http://www.usgs.gov/public_lecture_series/default.asp

The lecture series are held once a month in Reston, VA. Not all of the lectures are available on video. However, the videos of the earlier lectures are available in the archive area accessed at:

http://www.usgs.gov/public_lecture_series/archive_lectures.asp

There are presentations covering a wide range of topics involving the USGS. The archive goes back to April, 2009 which is when the series began. If you are researching a topic of a story, this may provide you with some good information.

Forum: Story Ideas

NASA: Interactions with Aerosols Boost Warming Potential of Some Gases

jimgandy — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 16:11:38 GMT

It's not just CO2 that is a concern. Other greenhouse gases and aerosols are often ignored in the discussion. NASA scientists have just published a study involving two other greenhouse gases and their interaction with aerosols. The report is published in the latest issue of Science:

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/326/5953/716?ijkey=6b98df6908197a0e3c04b08072201ccf6a107df3&keytype2=tf_ipsecsha

A general discussion of the report is available at:

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/aerosol_boost.html

There are three other articles of interest in the same issue of Science, two of which are related to the NASA study. The abstracts are below:

Beyond Climate Science

Eric J. Barron

The United States is moving rapidly into an age of climate-related decisions involving mitigation and adaptation, following decades of focusing on reducing uncertainties in attribution and prediction. But the nation lacks a deliberate approach to generating the "environmental intelligence" needed to support good decisions.

Eric J. Barron is director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado.

E-mail: barron@ucar.edu

Atmospheric Science:

Clean the Air, Heat the Planet?

Almut Arneth,^1,2,* Nadine Unger,³ Markku Kulmala,² Meinrat O. Andreae⁴

The push toward cleaner air in Beijing before the 2008 Olympic Games was a vivid reminder of the need to control air pollution, not only in Asia but in many regions of the world (1). There is mounting evidence for particle- and ozone-related health effects (2, 3). Furthermore, ozone and aerosol particles affect Earth's radiation balance (4, 5): Many aerosols cool the atmosphere (a negative forcing), whereas ozone and black carbon aerosol have a warming effect (a positive forcing). There is thus a strong motivation for treating air pollution control and climate change in common policy frameworks (5, 6). However, recent model studies (79) have shown that changes in pollutant and precursor emissions, atmospheric burden, and radiative forcing are not necessarily proportional. Furthermore, as Shindell et al. report on page 716 of this issue, current models do not capture many of the complex atmospheric processes involving aerosols and reactive trace gases (10).

¹ Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis, Lund University, 22362 Lund, Sweden.
² Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland.
³ NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA.
⁴ Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Biogeochemistry Department, 55020 Mainz, Germany.

^* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: almut.arneth@nateko.lu.se

Climate Change:

Clean Air for Megacities

David D. Parrish¹ and Tong Zhu²

As of 2008, over half of humanity lives in cities. The number of megacities (with populations over 10 million) grew from 3 in 1975 to 19 in 2007, and is projected to increase to 27 in 2025 (1). These megacities are the engines of growing economies, but are also very large sources of air pollutants and climate-forcing agents. The growth of megacities greatly aggravates the health impacts of polluted air, yet it may also provide an opportunity to mitigate climate change, if implemented air quality policies are designed to also reduce global warming.

¹ Chemical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305, USA.
² State Key Lab for Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.

E-mail: tzhu@pku.edu.cn

E-mail: david.d.parrish@noaa.gov

Forum: Story Ideas

Excellent Climate Change Visuals from NASA

paulg — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:00:17 GMT

Last weekend, NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab sponsored a symposium to show the public the latest data and scientific evidence about global warming. At my request, NASA has created a special webpage for broadcast meteorologists with access to the PowerPoint presentations for each speaker. This is a tremendous resource for us, and you can access the PowerPoints at http://climate.nasa.gov/ClimateSymposium/.

Again, NASA has done this just for us...please take the time to check it out.

Paul

Forum: Story Ideas

STATISTICS & GLOBAL COOLING/WARMING?

joe24Jscientist — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 19:29:07 GMT

"The case that the Earth might be cooling partly stems from recent weather. Last year was cooler than previous years. It's been a while since the super-hot years of 1998 and 2005. So is this a longer climate trend or just weather's normal ups and downs?

According to an analysis of the numbers done by several independent statisticians for The Associated Press...."

COMPLETE STORY:

Http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/ap-impact-statisticians-reject-174088.html

By SETH BORENSTEIN, The Associated Press

Forum: Story Ideas

New Media: Future of TV and new media

joe24Jscientist — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 22:19:30 GMT

A bit off topic as far as "stories" are concerned...

but if you are wondering what is the future of TV, new media, radio etc

for your career this is a revealing report in powerpoint-pdf form (quick and easy)

Joe

http://www.pff.org/mediametrics/

or view flicker graphics

http://www.flickr.com/photos/adam_thierer/sets/72157603730066720/

Or why should TV mets embrace new media ASAP.

Forum: Story Ideas

PewCenterResearh Poll: Americans Cooling to Global Warming

jimgandy — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:39:43 GMT

A new poll has been released by Pew Center Research. To see the poll go to:

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1386/cap-and-trade-global-warming-opinion

Be sure to read the recent letter sent to senators and supported by the leading scientific societies including the AMS at:

http://www.ametsoc.org/sss/documents/climateletter.pdf

Forum: Story Ideas

Wind Energy: A Scare for Bats and Birds

jimgandy — Thur, 22 Oct 2009 18:13:22 GMT

This is a developing story from the USGS. There is a multimedia presentation at:

http://gallery.usgs.gov/audios/315

The transcript is not posted yet, but this may be of interest to those of you in areas with wind farms. Why is this important? A question to be answered.

More information can be found at

http://www.mesc.usgs.gov/BatsWindmills/

You may want to enlist the help of a biologist or ecologist in your area.

Forum: Story Ideas

Changing Arctic Affecting Air, Ocean, and Everything in Between

jimgandy — Thur, 22 Oct 2009 17:49:00 GMT

NOAA just issued this press release and it can be found at:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20091022_arcticreportcard.html

The Arctic Report Card can be accessed at:

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/

Also check out the 2009 Russian-U.S. Arctic Census Mission at:

http://www.cpo.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./news/news_index.jsp&news=2009/10-20.html

and learn more about the mission at:

http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/09arctic/welcome.html

Forum: Story Ideas

Galaxy Cluster Smashes Distance Record

jimgandy — Thur, 22 Oct 2009 17:33:18 GMT

This press released appeared on the NASA website 22 October 2009:

The most distant galaxy cluster yet has been discovered by combining data from NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory and optical and infrared telescopes. The cluster is located about 10.2 billion light years away, and is observed as it was when the Universe was only about a quarter of its present age.

The galaxy cluster, known as JKCS041, beats the previous record holder by about a billion light years. Galaxy clusters are the largest gravitationally bound objects in the Universe. Finding such a large structure at this very early epoch can reveal important information about how the Universe evolved at this crucial stage.

JKCS041 is found at the cusp of when scientists think galaxy clusters can exist in the early Universe based on how long it should take for them to assemble. Therefore, studying its characteristics -- such as composition, mass, and temperature -- will reveal more about how the Universe took shape.

"This object is close to the distance limit expected for a galaxy cluster," said Stefano Andreon of the National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) in Milan, Italy. "We don't think gravity can work fast enough to make galaxy clusters much earlier."

Distant galaxy clusters are often detected first with optical and infrared observations that reveal their component galaxies dominated by old, red stars. JKCS041 was originally detected in 2006 in a survey from the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (UKIRT). The distance to the cluster was then determined from optical and infrared observations from UKIRT, the Canada-France-Hawaii telescope in Hawaii and NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope. Infrared observations are important because the optical light from the galaxies at large distances is shifted into infrared wavelengths because of the expansion of the universe.

The Chandra data were the final - but crucial - piece of evidence as they showed that JKCS041 was, indeed, a genuine galaxy cluster. The extended X-ray emission seen by Chandra shows that hot gas has been detected between the galaxies, as expected for a true galaxy cluster rather than one that has been caught in the act of forming.

Also, without the X-ray observations, the possibility remained that this object could have been a blend of different groups of galaxies along the line of sight, or a filament, a long stream of galaxies and gas, viewed front on. The mass and temperature of the hot gas detected estimated from the Chandra observations rule out both of those alternatives.

The extent and shape of the X-ray emission, along with the lack of a central radio source argue against the possibility that the X-ray emission is caused by scattering of cosmic microwave background light by particles emitting radio waves.

It is not yet possible, with the detection of just one extremely distant galaxy cluster, to test cosmological models, but searches are underway to find other galaxy clusters at extreme distances.

"This discovery is exciting because it is like finding a Tyrannosaurus Rex fossil that is much older than any other known," said co-author Ben Maughan, from the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom. "One fossil might just fit in with our understanding of dinosaurs, but if you found many more, you would have to start rethinking how dinosaurs evolved. The same is true for galaxy clusters and our understanding of cosmology."

The previous record holder for a galaxy cluster was 9.2 billion light years away, XMMXCS J2215.9-1738, discovered by ESA's XMM-Newton in 2006. This broke the previous distance record by only about 0.1 billion light years, while JKCS041 surpasses XMMXCS J2215.9 by about ten times that.

"What's exciting about this discovery is the astrophysics that can be done with detailed follow-up studies," said Andreon.

Among the questions scientists hope to address by further studying JKCS041 are: What is the build-up of elements (such as iron) like in such a young object? Are there signs that the cluster is still forming? Do the temperature and X-ray brightness of such a distant cluster relate to its mass in the same simple way as they do for nearby clusters?

The paper describing the results on JKCS041 from Andreon and his colleagues will appear in an upcoming issue of the journal Astronomy and Astrophysics. NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., manages the Chandra program for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington, DC. The Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory controls Chandra's science and flight operations from Cambridge, Mass.

More information, including images and other multimedia, can be found at:

http://chandra.harvard.edu

Janet Anderson, 256-544-6162
Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Ala.
Janet.L.Anderson@nasa.gov

More information is also available at:

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/chandra/main/index.html .

Forum: Story Ideas